The potential economic value of a 'universal' (multi-year) influenza vaccine

Lee BY, Tai JH, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Wateska AR, Zimmer SM, Zimmerman RK, Wagner MM. The potential economic value of a 'universal' (multi-year) influenza vaccine. Influenza and other respiratory viruses. 2012 May;6(3):167-75. PMID:21933357PMCID:PMC3253949.

Background

Limitations of the current annual influenza vaccine have led to ongoing efforts to develop a “universal” influenza vaccine, i.e., one that targets a ubiquitous portion of the influenza virus so that the coverage of a single vaccination can persist for multiple years.

Objectives

To estimate the economic value of a “universal” influenza vaccine compared to the standard annual influenza vaccine, starting vaccination in the pediatric population (2–18 year olds), over the course of their lifetime.

Patient/methods

Monte Carlo decision analytic computer simulation model

Results

Universal vaccine dominates (i.e., less costly and more effective) the annual vaccine when the universal vaccine cost ≤$100/dose and efficacy ≥75% for both the 5 and 10 year duration. The universal vaccine is also dominant when efficacy is ≥50% and protects for 10 years. A $200 universal vaccine was only cost-effective when ≥75% efficacious for a 5 year duration when annual compliance was 25% and for a 10 year duration for all annual compliance rates. A universal vaccine is not cost-effective when it cost $200 and when its efficacy is ≤50%. The cost-effectiveness of the universal vaccine increases with the duration of protection.

Conclusions

Although development of a universal vaccine requires surmounting scientific hurdles, our results delineate the circumstances under which such a vaccine would be a cost-effective alternative to the annual influenza vaccine.

Publication Year: 
2012
^